Thursday, May 16, 2013

Space Weather: Chance of X Flares 60%, M Flares 80%

LOTS of space weather today.

POSSIBLE CME IMPACT ON MAY 17:

A coronal mass ejection (CME) hurled into space by the X1-flare of May 15th might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 17th.

NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives.

X-FLARE THREAT CONTINUES:

Sunspot AR1748 has already unleashed four X-class solar flares, but it might not be finished.

The active region continues to grow beneath a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful eruptions.

NOAA puts the odds of another X-flare today at 60%.

DISCONNECTION EVENT IN THE TAIL OF COMET LEMMON:

Comet Lemmon (C/2012 F6), which is receding from the sun not far beyond the orbit of Earth, has just experienced a "disconnection event."

A cloud of dusty plasma is propagating down the comet's tail.

ION WAVES IN THE ATMOSPHERE:

Although AR1748 is not directly facing Earth, its strong flares have nevertheless affected our atmosphere.

UV and X-radiation hitting the top of the atmosphere ionizes atoms and molecules, creating ion waves over the dayside of the planet.

[photos]

http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=16&month=05&year=2013

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