Thursday, May 2, 2013

HUGE sunspot - AR1734 - to face Earth

CHANCE OF FLARES:

Will May begin with a solar flare?

Two sunspots (AR1730 and AR1731) have 'delta-class' magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong eruptions.

NOAA forecasters put the odds of an M-class solar flare today at 40%.

http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=02&month=05&year=2013

A third sunspot group, AR1734, spans an area on the solar surface the size of Jupiter.

AR1734 will be Earth-facing this week.

Chance of an X flare? Head's up.

[photos]

http://www.solarham.net/regions/1734.htm

UPDATE:
"NOAA AR 1731 produced an M1.1 flare on May 2nd, at 0510 UT (peak time). It is associated with a bright type II burst (Callisto observations in Humain), an EUV coronal wave and a CME. STEREO COR2 A observations show that the bulk of the CME is essentially propagating northward, with a speed between 600 -800 km/s. There is a chance that the southern flank of this event will encompass the Earth, with a first estimate for the arrival date being early on May 6. A more precise estimate will be given as new information comes in."

0 comments: