Thursday, November 8, 2012

Coping With Our Worst Nightmares: Accurately Predicted Earthquakes


By George Ure at Urban Survival

Wednesday November 7, 2012 

 Flash! Geryl Quake Hit

For some weeks now we have been advising you that 2012 researcher Patrick Geryl was predicting a major (7+) magnitude earthquake in the Nov 7-9 window. His predicted quake has just occurred:

"PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1 NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK 843 AM PST WED NOV 7 2012 ...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR ALASKA/ BRITISH COLUMBIA/ WASHINGTON/ OREGON AND CALIFORNIA... EVALUATION ---------- * THERE IS NO TSUNAMI DANGER FOR THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE. * AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH PARAMETERS LISTED BELOW. * THIS EVALUATION IS BASED ON EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION AND HISTORIC TSUNAMI RECORDS. PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS --------------------------------- * MAGNITUDE 7.5 * ORIGIN TIME 0736 AKST NOV 07 2012 0836 PST NOV 07 2012 1636 UTC NOV 07 2012 * COORDINATES 14.0 NORTH 92.2 WEST * DEPTH 21 MILES * LOCATION NEAR COAST OF CHIAPAS MEXICO "


I just spoke to Patrick and asked him to explain the quake prediction and he told me that it really began with the Neptune, Mercury, Venus alignment yesterday which segued into today's Neptune, Moon, Earth alignment today.
There's not much to worry about assuming 6.5 quakes (and smaller)  don't hit where you live on the side of a mountain, or something like that.
However the next major alignment is the Venus, Saturn, Moon, Earth alignment on November 25th.  Gerly says to keep an eye on that one because its magnitude, based on the alignments could be as great as an 8 to 8.5 magnitude.
Then we get a brief pause before the largest in memory series comes starting December 10th and continuing with an ultra-long alignment of planets through December 23rd. 
It's here that Patrick's work suggests there could be 10 magnitude quakes and dire earth-change events that have (in his research) destroyed past civilizations. 
Patrick has told me in past interviews that there are place where such destruction seems to bypass, and the fact that civilization seems to have worked its way north from mountainous central and southern parts of Africa, up into Egypt and from there to the Middle East, should not escape your attention.
I will not be making too much of this, although as Patrick and I compared notes this morning, this make it a total of six major quake predictions - in a row - without a miss.
When someone gets dialed in to this extent, we have to seriously assess his prediction's outlook and make plans according.  So from a personal/prepping standpoint, if there is indeed a major quake to wind up Thanksgiving weekend on the 25th, we will go to whatever the personal equivalent of Defcon One is for the December 10 and on series, because THAT in turn tees off what in Clif's work is the really grim stuff (global coastal event) before June of next year.
Aren't you glad to know all this?  Hey!  At least you have time...and let's see what happens - mark the date down:  November 25th plus or minus a day either side.

 ~ ~ ~ 


11/7/2012 -- 7.5M earthquake offshore Guatemala -- No Tsunami Warning 

~ ~ ~

Looks like they are arriving:  The market is signaling that Ure’s truly was (won’t say I told you so but…) right about how the dollar would go up sky-high and with it, the price of stocks would come tumbling down – like yesterday’s little 312-point nosebleed in the Dow.  

But we have to really focus on the topic of earthquakes this morning for two reasons:  One is Patrick Geryl is now up to at least 10-hits off stuff we’ve posted here on UrbanSurvival and over a dozen, based on what he has posted long ago on videos you can find on YouTube. [Also on Patrick's website.]

Second reason?  This 6.3 quake off Vancouver Island overnight.
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As you can see in the map here, this quake is just about 350-miles south of the Queen Charlotte Islands area where you see that cluster of quakes upper left which featured a similarly timed 7.4 magnitude quake on October 31.  

So it is not being ‘paranoid’ to look at the quakes like these and wonder “Are they working their way around the Pacific Plate?” 

Unfortunately, that appears to be the case – they don’t call it the “ring of fire” without reason. 

To make matters worse, I had suggested to you recently – in a piece then labeled as fictional and widely speculative that someone in government have known at a very high level about the whole slew of bad juju coming our way over the next year as I fictionalized that a coming quake right after the election – predicted by Patrick Geryl – would confirm or deny the possibility of more quakes to come later this month and bigger ones in December.  What’s more, I postulated – weeks ago this was fiction – that the now through end-of-year quakes would set off events that would cause government to seriously tighten controls and look for ways to appropriate absolute dictatorial powers for itself in order to ensure “continuity” over calamitous events yet undisclosed to the public. 

But, there are a few of us who are starting to scratch out the design pattern and are starting to “get it.” 


Geryl’s Batting Average 

With the predicted arrival of the quake – right on schedule – a few hours earlier than peak of the accompanying/causative celestial events, Oilman 2 had a couple of minutes at the office Wednesday and summed up his “audit” of our past few months of reports and predictions from Patrick Geryl.  I’ve lined up the quakes and the actual quakes and have numbered the “hits."

“As near as I can figure, here are the hits he has had in the last few months, but I don’t have Geryl’s list – this is from your stuff.   Bold red is mag 7+ and only mag 6+ checked. If we drop to mag 5.5 there are more hits…   Oilman2″   

August 22 – 26, 2012: Conjunction Earth – Neptune and the Sun (long Line Up!) August 24, 2012: Line Up Jupiter – Earth – Moon 

August 25, 2012: Line Up Ceres – Moon – 

Earth August 26, 2012: Line Up Pluto – Moon – Earth  -  Hit #1: 6.6 Molucca 

August 27, 2012:  Line Up Venus – Moon – Earth  – Hit #2: 7.4 El Salvador 

August 30, 2012: Mercury – Moon – Earth Lined Up – Hit #3: 6.8 Jan Mayan Island 

August 31, 2012: Sun – Moon – Earth Lined Up ” – Hit #4:  7.6 Philippines   

September 2, 2012: Triple Line Up: Neptune – Earth – Mercury (event 2 days previous fills) 

Sep 26 – 30, 2012: Conjunction Uranus–Earth-Sun – Hit #5:  6.4 Aleutians + 6.0 Solomons + 7.2 Colombia +  6.3 California (23.45 UT on Sep 25) 

September 29, 2012: Line Up – Uranus – Moon – Earth   (same grouping)  [Hit #6 missing? - c]

October 23 – 27, 2012: Opposition Earth – Saturn across the Sun – Hit #7: 6.0 Japan 

October 24, 2012: Line Up Neptune – Moon – Earth – Hit #8:  6.4 Costa Rica 

October 25 – 30, 2012: Long Triple Line Up: Mars – Earth – Jupiter – Hit #9:  6.2  Queen Charlotte October 28 – 6.4 + 7.7 Queen Charlotte 

October 31 – November 3, 2012: Long Triple: Uranus–Earth–Venus – (Energy release in above sequence) 

November 2 – 6.0 Philippines November 1, 2012: Jupiter–Moon–Earth & Mars–Moon–Earth November 7-8: possible 7 plus – Hit #10:  7.5 Chiapas, Mexico

Pending Dates and Magnitudes to Watch 

November 13-14: 6.5 plus
November 15-16: 6.5 plus
November 20: 6 plus
November 22-23: 6.5 plus
November 28: 7 + 

December 2 – 3, 2012: Conjunction Earth – Jupiter and the Sun
December 3, 2012: Opposition Neptune – Mercury across the Sun
December 3, 2012: Opposition Uranus – Venus across the Sun
December 4-5: 7 plus
December 10 – 13, 2012: Opposition Uranus – Mercury across the Sun
December 11: 7 plus
December 14, 2012: Line Ups: Pluto – Moon – Earth and Mars – Moon – Earth December 12 – 16, 2012: Triple Line Up Neptune – Mars – Venus (strong December 14) 

December 17, 2012: Line up: Neptune – Moon – Earth
December 17-18: 8 plus
December 16 – 18, 2012: Triple Line Up Jupiter – Earth – Mercury (strong December 17)
December 17 – 18, 2012: Conjunction Venus – Mercury and the Sun December 17 – 18, 2012: Conjunction Ceres – Earth 

December 19, 2012: Conjunction Saturn – Mercury and the Sun  
December 20, 2012: Line Up: Uranus – Moon – Earth
December 21, 2012: Conjunction Saturn – Venus and the Sun
December 20 – 24, 2012: Triple Line Up Neptune – Mars – Mercury (strong December 22)
December 21 – 24, 2012: Triple Line Up Jupiter – Earth – Venus (strong December 22 – 23)
December 21: 10 plus
December 23, 2012: Line Up: Saturn – Moon – Earth
December 25, 2012: Line Up: Jupiter – Moon – Earth 

Now, from what I’ve seen in the way of hits on what Patrick has generously shared here, I’m going to whatever the personal equivalent of Defcon One is if he hit close to the Nov. 25/28 area with an 8.0 or larger. 

As I was explaining earlier in this morning’s kick off the economic impacts of a 10 is incredible to imagine, particularly if it happened to hit a highly populated area, such as southern California. 

To his credit, Patrick does not many any predictions about locations, but with all the action around the Pacific Plate lately, in fact over the past 8-years since the Boxing Day Banda Aceh quake in 2004, there’s reason to be worried – very worried AND PREPARED for any eventualities in this coming period. 

A drop of 300 points in the Dow?  Oh, uh, sure…important for those of us who can still keep in front of markets now and then…we called this turn more than a week ago. 

But the BIG problem with money is you need some place to spend it – and in our worst nightmares, Patrick is right with a 10 – and maybe several  and then what happens when we begin to see global regions of rising or subsiding lands, all triggered and working out through spring through about June 1st when our long-anticipated “data gap” in predictive linguistics saws through the Internet? 

Depending, of course, if the ‘net survives December – and that gets to be an interesting area of speculation for another day.  This weekend, Peoplenomics will address the problem of how to react if – come the November 25th period – there is (as he’s predicting) an 8+ magnitude quake close to the date, say plus or minus 48-hours either side.  What will a cautions person do then?  I’m building a list and that will be up for Peoplenomics subscribers. 

One other note – since people on the East Coast (they capitalize it) tend to be occasionally smug about their seismic conditions, since the Pacific is some distance off:  The USGS released a report recently which said in part, smaller quakes for equivalent impacts along the eastern seaboard: 

U.S. Geological Survey scientists found that last year’s magnitude 5.8 earthquake in Virginia triggered landslides at distances four times farther—and over an area 20 times larger—than previous research has shown. 

“We used landslides as an example and direct physical evidence to see how far-reaching shaking from east coast earthquakes could be,” said Randall Jibson, USGS scientist and lead author of this study.

“Not every earthquake will trigger landslides, but we can use landslide distributions to estimate characteristics of earthquake energy and how far regional ground shaking could occur.” 

“Scientists are confirming with empirical data what more than 50 million people in the eastern U.S. experienced firsthand: this was one powerful earthquake,” said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. 

“Calibrating the distance over which landslides occur may also help us reach back into the geologic record to look for evidence of past history of major earthquakes from the Virginia seismic zone.” 

This study will help inform earthquake hazard and risk assessments as well as emergency preparedness, whether for landslides or other earthquake effects. ” 

But since this “hit” comes about concurrent with Clif’s having “health issues” visiting his house as warned by three independent groups of remote viewers, well, I think you can see the reason for concerns and why we’re getting seriously ready for come what may. 

It said 35% chance and I meant it… Someone doesn’t knock down 10-serious earthquake hits like this and make further predictions of worse to come without being taken seriously around here. 

Odds? 

So what are his odds of hitting this close?  If you’re a statistics major and want to work it out there is a methodology we can use that involve the fine crunching of the USGS database since 1973 done by reader T.R. who generously updates us monthly as his schedule permits. 

Using the most recent data I can lay my hands on at this hour (about 4:30 AM) what we find is that over the one year period 9/2011 to 9/2012 there were 11.154 magnitude 6 (or greater) quakes per month, but only 1.308 7.0 or greater. 

If you want to work out the numbers based on this and send it in, I can think of about 25-thosuand people who read this column daily who would sure be interested in what the odds of his current success rate are.  The 6.0 to 6.9 quakes is one thing, but the 7.0 quakes is quite another. 

By the way, just so you’re aware of it, in a period of quiescence, like 9/1988 to 9/1989, the average per month on 6.0 to 7.0 was only 6.615 while 7.0+ was 0.2308. 

So the recent quake activity, we might loosely write as “almost twice as much activity at the 6.0 to 7.0 level and 5 times as much activity at the 7.0 and above level.” 

Not that this should send anyone scurrying under the bed, but the numbers, particularly with the Queen Charlotte and Guatemala quakes should cause even skeptics to wonder about whether we will get any “fill” come the November 25th (possibly to the 28th) period.  If we do, we’ll pull out the action plans which will be on Peoplenomics this weekend. 

For now, I’m at the 35% alert level.  A hit around the 25th would put me at about a 60% expectation level which is more than adequate to spend money on preps, since 60 percent unprepared is an unacceptable outcome.  That may involve flying kids out of Seattle, for example.
  

World://Quakes\Addendum

Just in from Patrick...
"Hi George,     I got the august 14 quake also right... Sea of Okhotsk was 7.7/7.3   Go to that date on your website...   Increases the odds a bit more i think.... "
Yep....sure does....

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