Predicting Solar Flares and CMEs

Evidence for a Strong Correlation of Solar Proton Events with Solar Radio Bursts

By Xiao-Cong Li and Lian-Sheng Kang, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012; E-mail: li_xiaocong@163.com

Abstract. A statistical analysis is made on the correlation between solar proton events with energies >10 Mev and solar radio bursts during the four-year period from 1997 November to 2000 November. We examine 28 solar proton events and their corresponding solar radio bursts at 15400, 8800, 4995, 2695, 1415, 606, 410 and 245 MHz. The statistical result shows that there is a close association between solar proton events and ≥3 solar radio bursts occurring at several frequencies, one or two days before. In particular, it is noteworthy that proton events occurring in pairs within the same month are preceded 1–2 days by individual radio bursts and most of the radio bursts of solar flares occur at all eight frequencies. Those 245 MHz radio bursts associated with proton events have intense peak fluxes (up to 67000 sfu). Solar proton events are preceded 1 or 2 days by ≥3 radio bursts at several frequencies and proton events occurring in pairs within the same month are preceded 1 or 2 days by some individual radio bursts. These correlations may be used for providing short-term or medium-term prediction of solar proton events. -- Full Text [$]

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Radio Events Observed 21 Dec 2009
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
0655 0702 270 0659 0007
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak
0704 0936 220 0832

Radio Events Observed 22 Dec 2009
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
0359 0401 2900 0400 0002
0453 0457 4900 0455 0004
0749 0750 1100 0749 0001
1001 1002 180 1002 0001
1246 1246 110 1246 0000
1801 1801 130 1801 0000
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

Radio Events Observed 23 Dec 2009
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
0241 0242 280 0241 0001
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

Standby...

UPDATE:

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 67
Issue Time: 2009 Dec 25 1619 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2009 Dec 25 1710 UTC
Valid To: 2009 Dec 25 1810 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2009 Dec 25 1550 UTC

Source: SWPC.NOAA.gov ~ e-mail alerts

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“Oh man! There is no planet, sun or star could hold you, if you but knew what you are.” -- Ralph Waldo Emerson

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45 yesterday... and still learning. - c