Iranian missile drives past a photo of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Khomeini and a banner (right), reading "Peaceful nuclear technology is an essential need of our country," in a ceremony to mark Army Day in Tehran, April 18, 2007.
Excerpt from report (PDF) by Uzi Rubin, former head of Israel's missile defense program and Israel Missile Defense Association (IMDA) Board of Directors member.
What is the rationale behind the Iranian missile program? Prior to 1991 and the first Gulf War, the main threat to Iran was Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. The Iranians began developing their missile program at the height of the Iran-Iraq war, directly under fire, so to speak, after Saddam Hussein began launching missiles at Iran and the only thing the Iranians could use in response was a few Scud “B”s they had received from Libya, the only country that supported Iran.
Since the Gulf War, the Iranians have believed that the United States has replaced Iraq as their preeminent threat. The Iranian threat scenario is a massive U.S. military action against Iran, aided by U.S. allies in the region including the Gulf states and Israel, which the regime sees as an outpost of the United States.
The Iranians are realists: They know victory in a set-piece battle against the United States is impossible. Instead, the regime hopes to deter the United States and its allies by threatening a war of attrition that will exact such a high price that the U.S. will choose not to fight in the first place. With this in mind, the regime is focusing its efforts not on the improvement of its substantial arsenal of conventional arms, but rather on new classes of weapons. Very shrewdly, Iran is investing in deterrence enhancers and force multipliers. Replacing obsolete equipment seems to be assigned a lower priority.
What does Iran invest in? Precision-strike munitions, naval anti-ship weapons, ballistic missiles, space programs, and a nuclear weapons program. [An inventory of these weapons appears in the full report.]
Iran’s strategic missiles are not controlled by the Iranian Army, but instead by the Revolutionary Guard, which has its own air force, ground force, and navy, and which reports to Iran’s spiritual leader. As for their basing mode, the Iranians have displayed a variety of mobile launchers, but there are indications that they are now constructing fixed silo-like hardened sites to make their missiles even more survivable.
Somewhat mysteriously, Iran has managed to acquire from North Korea eighteen BM25 land-mobile missiles together with their launchers, which can strike targets in Europe. Interestingly enough, and in sharp contrast to Iran’s policy of transparency regarding the Shahab program, the purchase of the BM25 has been denied by Iran.
Click map to enlarge (PDF).
Iran announced a space program in 1998, concurrent with the first test flight of its Shahab 3 ballistic missile. On February 4, 2008, Iran unveiled a fully integrated space program and infrastructure, including an indigenous satellite launch vehicle (SLV) dubbed “Safir,” a small “entry ticket” satellite dubbed “Omid,” and a launch complex replete with a large launch tower and various flight and ground systems associated with launching satellites into space. At the same time, Iran’s minister of defense announced the major goals and timetables of the program: To orbit the Omid – Iran’s “Sputnik” – by the spring or summer of 2008, and to be able to put into orbit high-resolution “earth resources” – that is, spy satellites – by 2015. Obviously, such satellites will require heftier SLVs than the “Safir,” which is a hint that the Iranian plans contain an undisclosed, more capable SLV.
Anyone with a SLV can drop a bomb anywhere in the world. The “Safir” seems to be too light for anything but a token bomb. However, once Iran’s more advanced SLV is completed, it could provide Iran with the capability of dropping a more sizable bomb, perhaps one outfitted with WMD, on any target it chooses. The Iranians might be clever enough not to actually develop a specific ICBM that could reach America: It would be enough to orbit a satellite in a trajectory that traverses U.S. territory. Every time Iran’s “Omid” will beep over the the U.S., it would remind America of Iran’s potential to strike it. The impact on the U.S. when the Soviet Union launched the first “Sputnik” comes to mind.
Iran’s short-term goal is to deter the United States and gain freedom of action to become a nuclear power. Its long-term goal is to project power beyond Iran, over Europe, and to the United States. With its space program, Iran is bound to project power on a global scale.
Obviously, the Iranians are overstating their capabilities as part of the normal kind of psychological warfare in which regimes engage. But behind this overstatement is a real capability – not as much as is claimed, but not insignificant either. The Iranian capability is being improved by the investment of a great deal of money, and it is being developed over time.
Behind a banner of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reading "Missile maneuver of the Great Prophet", Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards test the long-range Shahab-3 missile, Nov. 2, 2006. [Why the rose on the banner?]
Since the ascendance of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s president in 2005, Iranian political aspirations seem to have shifted from self-preservation to global power projection. At a recent conference in Berlin, one of the deputies to Iran’s foreign minister called upon the world to recognize that Islam comprises 25 percent of humanity and should occupy its rightful place in decision making in world affairs and in the allocation of the world’s resources. Statements like that indicate a mindset which is more aggressive than defensive. Accordingly, it should not be surprising if the Iranians embark upon massive armament programs with modern offensive weapon systems in the near future.
Ahmadinejad has declared that Islam should now roll back 300 years of Western superiority. He was speaking in the name of Islam rather than of Iran, but he clearly views Iran as the spearhead of what he believes is an Islamic struggle against Western civilization. Other Iranians stress the historic greatness of Iran and its 6,000-year-old civilization. The Iranians are trying to retrieve the old glory of the Persian Empire and at the same time become a world power and the leaders of global Islam. The development of long-range missiles and space launchers is a key element in building up Iran’s power to assume such a leadership position in global affairs.
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